- Objective 1: Downscaling future atmospheric variables (air temperature, pressure, wind data…) and wave parameters (significant height, peak period, direction...) at high spatial resolution near the northwest coast of the Iberian Peninsula considering different climate change scenarios. This downscaling will be based on data (historical and projections) provided by the CMIP6 project (https://www.wcrp-climate.org/
Task 1.1: Select optimal climate models to be downscaled.
Task 1.2: Simulate future atmospheric variables.
Task 1.3: Simulate future wave parameters.
- Objective 2: Downscaling future oceanographic variables (temperature and salinity) and wave properties inside Rías Baixas at very high resolution by means of models like Delft3D for oceanographic variables and SWAN for waves. Unstructured grids will be used to pass from around a few kilometers at the continental shelf to around one hundred meters inside the rías.
Task 2.1: Downscaling of future oceanographic variables at very high resolution.
Task 2.2: Downscaling of future wave properties at very high resolution.
- Objective 3: Temperature modeling in the sediment. This approach is crucial for benthic bivalves that can be buried several centimeters in the sediment depending on the species. The NOAH Mussel Model (NMM), which is based on the NOAH land surface model, will be used. NMM includes new "vegetation" types, including barnacles and mussels on rocks and intertidal muddy sandflats (an unvegetated muddy sandy soil type will be used in this project).
Task 3.1: Validating models with in situ measurements during the historical period.
Task 3.2: Modelling sediment temperature under future heatwaves.
- Objective 4: Determining changes in sediment properties of the shellfish beds. Muddy sandy shores, the habitats of infaunal bivalves, can be modified by changes in wave and current patterns, especially those due to extreme future conditions.
Task 4.1: Determine the textural and compositional characteristics and hydraulic properties of productive shellfish beds.
Task 4.2: Determine the stability of the current shellfish beds based on the model results, considering the occurrence and intensity of the extreme events.
- Objective 5: Mesocosm experiments to analyze the effect of the changes determined in Objectives 1, 2, 3 and 4.
Task 5.1: Preliminary mesocosm experiments based on bibliographic data to analyze the effect of extreme events on mortality, scope-for-growth and reproduction.
Task 5.2: Reproducing future extreme sediment alterations in mesocosm experiments to analyze their effect on mortality.
Task 5.3: Reproducing future extreme low salinity and high temperature conditions in mesocosm experiments to analyze their effect on mortality, scope-for-growth and reproduction.
Task 5.4: Post processing experimental data.
- Objective 6: Create mechanistic models from the information provided in the previous objectives to determine which areas inside the Rías Baixas can become less viable in the future for the production of bivalves.
Task 6.1: Elaboration of layers with the information provided in previous objectives.
Task 6.2: Determining areas with negative impact. Less suitable for bivalve harvesting than today.
Task 6.3: Proposal of mitigation and adaptation measures.
- Objective 7: Analyze the socio-economic vulnerability, adaptive capacity and resilience of shellfishing activities facing climate change impacts.
Task 7.1: Estimate the economic costs of climate change.
Task 7.2: Evaluate the social vulnerability, adaptive capacity and resilience.
Task 7.3: Co-produce future plausible climate change scenarios based on models’ results and IPBES Nature Future Framework.
- Objective 8: Dissemination.
The main results of the project will be disseminated to specialized public, decision makers, stake holders and to a more general public.