ESMORGA

Probabilidad de riesgo de fenómenos meteorológicos e hidrológicos extremos en España según las proyecciones futuras del CMIP6 en alta resolución espacial

High spatial resolution hazard probability of extreme meteorological and hydrological events in Spain under future CMIP6 projections 

 

CALL:  Proyectos Estratégicos Orientados a la Transición Ecológica y a la Transición Digital (2021)

REFERENCE: TED2021-129152B-C43

BUDGET: 126.500 €

PERIOD: 01/12/2022 - 30/09/2025

 

SUMMARY

 

Recent decades have seen record-breaking in natural hazards in Europe, and it is expected that their number will be increased for future climate, and Spain is not an exception.

The main objective of this project is to evaluate the hazard probability of extreme meteorological events in Spain for current climate and future climates using ERA5 reanalysis and CMIP6 outputs with increased resolution through dynamic models adjusted to regional meteorology.

Secondary objectives are a) to perform high-resolution simulations for current and future climates from ERA5 reanalysis (HR-ERA5) and multi-model CMIP6 outputs (HR-CMIP6) using the WRF for a configurations centred on the Iberian Peninsula and the areas of influence of meteorological systems affecting it, and b) to estimate the change of the occurrence probability of a set of extreme meteorological events by using a multi-model ensemble of different HR- CMIP6 simulations

We will perform multiple dynamic downscaling experiments using the regional Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Simulations will be performed for a region centred in the Iberian Peninsula and the area of meteorological systems which influence on its atmospheric conditions using two nested domains of 30 and 10 km of spatial resolution. WRF will be forced with ERA5 reanalysis and the outputs of eight CMIP6 Global Climate Models (CESM2, NorESM2-LM, CNRM-ESM2-1, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MRI-ESM2-0, IPSL-CM6A-LR, CNRM-CM6-1, and IPSL-CM6A-LR), with three sets of simulations: the historical climatic conditions (1980-2018 also for ERA5), the conditions until the end of the century, and the new future greenhouse gas emission scenario combining Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP5-8.5. We will also apply bias correction to the HR-CMIP6 mean states to HR-ERA5 using the methodology proposed by Bruyere et al. (2015).

Then, we will characterize extreme meteorological events under the future climate change scenarios and their climate change signal. Different detection algorithm depending on the natural and extreme hazards (that could be found will be windstorms, heavy precipitation, severe winter weather events, wildfires, heat waves, floods, droughts, etc.) will be applied to the HR-ERA5 dataset for the historical period 1980-2020 and to all available HR-CMIP6 simulations for two sub periods of 50 years centered in 2050 and 2075. We will also develop risk curves and maps of extreme meteorological and hydrological events for future climate change scenarios. Assuming stationary vulnerability and exposure, we will evaluate future sectoral (social, health and environment) risk associated with extreme meteorological and hydrological events considering changes in the hazard probability according to the future scenarios. This will allow us to determine comparisons with the past 50 years and to establish regions and sectors in which the risk is projected to increase associated with different types of extremes.

 

ESMORGA is a subproject from a coordinated project EXMERISK : Vulnerability and risk of extreme meteorological and hydrological events in Spain: quantification and development of information products and tools.

 

Proyecto  TED2021-129152B-C43  financiado por MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 y por la Unión Europea NextGenerationEU/ PRTR