Objectives                                                                                                                       

 

ESMORGA is a subproject from a coordinated project EXMERISK :

EXMERISK: Vulnerability and risk of extreme meteorological and hydrological events in Spain: quantification and development of information products and tools.

PI COORDINATOR : Sergio Martín Vicente Serrano 

SUBPROJECT 2: PI  Fernando Domínguez Castro.  TITLE: Assessment of the impact of extreme meteorological and hydrological events in Spain using artificial intelligence and big data

SUBPROJECT 3: PIs Raquel Nieto & Luis Gimeno. TITLE: High spatial resolution hazard probability of extreme meteorological and hydrological events in Spain under future CMIP6 projections (ESMORGA)

SUBPROJECT 4: PI María Concepción Gimeno Presa. TITLE: The law as a tool to improve resilience and adaptation to extreme meteorological and hydrological events under climate change.

 

The MAIN OBJECTIVE of EXMERISK is to assess the societal and environmental risk of extreme meteorological and hydrological events (EMHEs) in Spain, including future projections of risk and the assessment of the effectiveness of current regulatory system to deal with EMHEs, with possible suggestions to reform it.

The partial objectives (included across all the sub-objectives) and the methodology proposed to achieve this main objective are:

Ob. 1. Development of software tools based on artificial intelligence to extract information of EMHEs and their impacts from newspapers available in digital press libraries.

Ob. 2. Application of the tools developed in the Ob.1 in different national and regional press libraries for the period 1980-2020. A methodology of indexation of the retrieved impacts will be proposed for each EMHEs.

Ob. 3. Generation of an impact database on ecological systems and crop areas based on remote sensing information (1981-2020). We will use spectral information (NDVI/phenology) from satellite imagery to identify anomalies in vegetation activity that can be related with EMHEs.

Ob. 4. Generation of a database of the impact of the EMHEs combining the information generated in Obs. 2-3 and information from official statistics that currently are disperse in different administrations.

Ob. 5. Generation of a database of EMHEs obtained objectively from meteorological and hydrological records. We will analyse meteorological and hydrological variables to identify frequency, surface extent, and severity of the EMHEs that have affected Spain.

Ob. 6. To determine the impact associated with EMHEs through the statistical relationship between extreme event occurrence (Ob. 5) and the impact information (Ob. 4). We will develop by stochastic extreme event analysis the hazard probability maps and the maps of vulnerability of the EMHEs for different socioeconomic sectors and environmental systems.

Ob. 7. Determination of the sectorial and spatial risk related to extreme events by combining maps of hazard probability and vulnerability (Ob. 6) with exposure maps (e.g. population, economic weight of different economic sectors, land cover…). Risk thresholds associated with the severity of EMHEs will be  determined for different sectors and territories.

Ob. 8. To develop high spatial resolution simulations for current and future climates based on multi-model CMIP6 outputs (HR-CMIP6) using model WRF. WRF will be forced with ERA5 reanalysis and the outputs of eight CMIP6 models, with two sets of simulations: historical (ERA5 1980-2020), and future 2020-2100 considering SSP5-8.5 scenario.

Ob. 9. Validation of the high-resolution historical simulations with special focus on EMHEs, combining the information generated in Ob. 5 with the simulations developed in Ob. 8. The comparison will be based on statistics comparing the intensity, frequency and spatial distribution of EMHEs. This will allow us to determine uncertainty and confidence intervals of the modelled EMHEs.

Ob. 10. Future hazard probability for EMHEs with increased resolution through dynamic models adjusted to regional meteorology. We will estimate the change of the occurrence probability of EMHEs by using a multi-model ensemble of different HR-CMIP6 simulations and comparison between the validated simulations over the historical period and the SSPS8.5 scenario.

Ob. 11. Assessment of the risk of EMHEs under future climate. We will combine hazard probability (Ob. 10) with vulnerability assessment (Ob. 6) applying the same methods than in Ob. 7 and assuming stationary vulnerability and exposure. We will evaluate future sectorial risk associated with EMHEs considering changes in the hazard probability according to the future projections.

Ob. 12. Development of an interactive and friendly user information tool that will include: i) the impact database, ii) the database of extreme meteorological events, iii) interactive maps of hazard probability for different types of events, iv) maps of sectoral vulnerability, v) risk curves and maps for the current climate scenario, vi) interactive hazard probability maps for future climate change scenarios and vii) risk curves and maps for the future climate.

Ob. 13. To analyse the evolution of the statutory law and the judicial decisions in response to EMHEs to determine if the occurrence and severity of these events have promoted possible modifications of the legal framework. We will compile and analyse the statutory rules to establish possible relationships with the occurrence of EMHEs by means of the information generated in Ob. 5.

Ob. 14. To compare the legal solutions for prevention and adaptation to EMHEs in Spain and other countries. Explore how EMHEs affect public policies, for example, to develop climate-resilient agriculture in the hot-spot regions identified in ob. 7 that contribute to food security and to related aspects of the circular economy.

Ob. 15. To evaluate the efficacy of the current law to regulate the legal liability originated by EMHEs events under future climate projections and risk produced in Ob. 9-10.

Ob. 16. To propose legal reforms to improve the resilience and adaptation of socioeconomic and environmental systems in Spain to the occurrence of EMHEs under future climate projections. We will use the data of foreseen frequency of extreme EMHEs (Ob. 9) and the problems identified in the legal framework (Obs. 13 and 16) to propose legal reforms to improve the resilience and adaptation to EMHEs under climate change.

                                                            

                                                                                                                  

                                                                                                                                             Interaction between subprojects and objectives 

Proyecto  TED2021-129152B-C43  financiado por MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 y por la Unión Europea NextGenerationEU/ PRTR