Executive summary
The hydrological cycle is a component of the climate system that is crucial for life on the planet. Changes in the atmospheric and terrestrial branches of the cycle represent elements of variability and/or extremes (e.g. intense rainfall and drought) inherent in natural processes. In global warming scenarios, the hydrological cycle is expected to intensify, with arid regions becoming drier and humid regions becoming wetter. Therefore, moisture transport mechanisms and the relationship between moisture sources and sinks will play a crucial role in the variability and extremes of precipitation on the continents. Despite this, few studies have addressed changes in atmospheric moisture under future socio-economic conditions using more precise methodologies, particularly for Central America, South America and the Caribbean. This is a large region characterised by different types of climate and ecosystems. For these regions, the IPCC in its AR6 report (2021) confirmed the increasing trend of hydroclimatic extremes in recent decades and reported with high confidence the increasing trends expected in future scenarios. Thus, the objective of this proposal is to perform historical (1980-2014) and future (2041-2070, 2071-2100) numerical simulations of atmospheric moisture transport by the Lagrangian model FLEXPART-WRF, using as input historical data simulated with WRF, which in turn uses ERA5 reanalysis data, and a bias-corrected data set based on the ensemble of 18 models from Phase 6 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), considering the SSP2-4. 5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, as they represent opposite trajectories. The analysis is divided into historical and future knowledge to simulate and compare changes in atmospheric moisture transport and the role and future changes in climatological moisture sources for precipitation in 10 climatological regions covering all study regions.
These regions were used in the IPCC AR6 report and provide the best representation of the climate. The project also aims to investigate moisture transport mechanisms (low-level jets and tropical storms), assess historical and future dry/wet conditions, and use the contribution of moisture to precipitation from sources in each region to explain the occurrence and severity of these extremes. These objectives represent a major challenge in the atmospheric sciences to improve our understanding of hydroclimatic processes and extremes.
In addition, this project aims to contribute to studies on risk assessment, adaptation and vulnerability reduction in the 10 regions defined by the IPCC, in particular those characterised by dense forests (e.g. the Amazon) and extensive agricultural landscapes. The proposal will address existing methodological gaps and provide essential knowledge to support the development of sustainable and resilient adaptation strategies, paving the way for more effective responses to future climate challenges.
PI: Rogert Sorí
Publications:
A. Pérez-Alarcón, M. Vázquez, R.M. Trigo, R. Nieto, L. Gimeno (2025) Towards an understanding of uncertainties in the Lagrangian analysis of moisture sources for tropical cyclone precipitation through a study case, Atmospheric Research 314; doi: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107822
A. Valero-Jorge, R. González-Lozano, R. González-De Zayas, F. Matos-Pupo, R. Sorí, M. Stojanovic (2024) An Innovative Tool for Monitoring Mangrove Forest Dynamics in Cuba Using Remote Sensing and WebGIS Technologies: SIGMEM, Remote Sensing, doi: 10.3390/rs16203802.